VOTE TURNOUT DOWNTURN? Registration Figures Trailing 2009

BY JOE SHAHEELI/ Main-line media, including all papers and television stations in the city except for the Philadelphia Public Record, in their election reporting concede Philadelphia will see a record turnout and an avalanche sweep for President Obama. Which is what we do not believe.

The registration figures reported to date by the city’s County Commissioners belie what the media are claiming. We see those incoming figures projecting a lesser turnout for this city and possibly the Commonwealth. A check with a report by Gregory Irving, voter-registration administrator, reveals the following: Despite the hullabaloo over the voter photo-ID bill and the resulting strenuous efforts of the City’s Commissioners, the dedicated supporters of Obama’s reelection effort and Democrat ward leaders who are counted on to bring out the vote, the figures showing up, as of this date, of those registering to vote are down 139,911 from those logged in during the 2008 national presidential campaign.

There remains about the same distance in registration totals between the Democrats and Republicans in this city. Dems continue leading with 811,687 registrants, while Republicans hang on to 129,351 loyalists. Daily efforts to insure everyone eligible to vote has a proper voter ID have resulted in additional thousands of duplicate registrations, creating a problem for the registration officials. The numbers are high and are honest and do not reflect the obvious thousands of faulty registrations submitted by ACORN members in the 2008 election.

What is disappointing to the leaders of both parties is the lack of effort reported in their respective wards. Understandably, Democrat ward leaders found it harder to get Republicans to change over to Democrat, with no ward reaching anywhere near 100. Changeovers from Republican registrants to Democrats totaled to date, 3,559.

Republican ward leaders failed likewise, despite claims to the contrary by some of a big net gain in changeovers. None got near the figure of 100, with Republicans registering over to their side only 1,644. The one Republican ward which may reach that goal by end of registrations, was the 64th, led by ward leader Bob Cummings with 93.

President Obama’s campaign team in the city, supported by several pro-Obama action groups, accounted for many of the new Democrat registrations. But it is not sure which of these were duplicates as a result of the outreach efforts to ensure compliance with the voter photo-ID law. The Obama effort brought in 22,619, followed by pro-Obama organizations which totaled about the same. The question to be asked, and which can’t be answered by anyone group, is how will the 6,227 independents and the 89,961 registered as “other” will vote. Key to voter turnout for either party is whether efforts are being made to target them.

Belying the dip in lower registration turnouts are the absentee-ballot applications. The military applications have already surpassed their figure in 2008 and it is expected, at the rate they are coming in, the 20,000 applications logged in 2008 “will be surpassed.”

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision determining the validity of the voter photo-ID legislation may have some effect on the turnout. Invalidating the law may turn off those who went to the trouble of getting voter IDs, especially seniors. Then, again, it may not. The only sign there may be a decrease in voting totals from the 2008 presidential election in Philadelphia is the fact there are 139,911 fewer registrations reported to date.

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