by Joe Shaheeli
Once in a while we join the prognosticators in how races will end up. We stopped hesitating a couple weeks ago after watching some of the bell-weather stats coming from both gubernatorial camps. We think we have Gov. Tom Corbett’s strategy down pat, but haven’t yet figured out Tom Wolf’s direction.
We threw into the calculation the potential votes coming out of Philadelphia—the key to all victories in this state—and the effect of the shortening coat tails of President Obama.
Our conclusion is a one point spread at the end of Election Night for the winner. Sorry, we can’t predict a winner at this stage. Anything can happen on the international, national stages to sway that point spread.
The gap between the two is definitely closing. Magellan Strategies commissioned a poll of 1,214 lPennsylvania voters via automated calls following Governor Corbett’s recent attack advertisements. 46% of the poll’s respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 43% as Republican, and 10% as independent.
Among voters who say they have definitely decided upon a candidate, Governor Corbett’s vote percentage has improved to within 7 points of York County businessman Tom Wolf’s numbers. 35.9% of respondents favored Wolf, while 28.6% favored Corbett. 12% still remain undecided.
The crucial missing percentage is the 24% of PA likely voters polled who responded that they are leaning toward a candidate. These “leaners” will make the difference in November, as the two crucial questions will be whether they turn out to vote, and if so whom they ultimately mark on the ballot.
Magellan Strategies finds that Wolf’s lead expands to 12 when leaners are included. 50.3% support Wolf, 38.1% support Corbett, and 11.6% are still undecided. Be mindful this is a conservative driven poll.
But a CBS/New York Times survey finds Governor Corbett may be overcoming his polling deficit. The online scientific poll report finds Wolf holds a 43% to 33% lead over Gov. Corbett. Although, once again, when leaners were included the challenger’s lead widened to fourteen points. These numbers still show a marked improvement for the Governor from earlier this year when Franklin and Marshall, Quinnipiac ageed Wolf held a lead of over twenty points.
It’s not just Democrats who are advocating for Philadelphia to win the bid to host the 2016 Democratic National Convention.
The Philadelphia Republican Party is vocally supporting the effort to bring the big event to the City of Brotherly Love.
“As a Philadelphian obviously it’s a great thing,” Philly GOP Executive Director Joe DeFelice. “I believe it will be good for the city. I’m a Philadelphian born and raised so anything that can bring positive exposure is welcome. Plus, it will bring millions and millions in hotel and tourist dollars so hopefully we won’t have to raise any more taxes down here.”.
Philadelphia is currently competing with fellow finalists Birmingham, Brooklyn, Columbus and Phoenix to host the 2016 presidential nominating convention.
What needs to be applauded is the Metropolitan Council of Carpenters, headed by President Ed Coryell, withdrew their weekly picket line of the Convention center, not to create a disruption as the Democratic Convention Selection Committee toured this city and the Convention Center facilities.
The American Political Science Review reports Washington, DC, is among the most liberal cities in voting and ordnance passing. It ranks second behind Mesa, AZ. Down at 49 is Pittsburgh, and at 52, Philadelphia. San Francisco is last of the 67 liberal cities rated.
Accolades are pouring in from many sources predicting State Rep. Brendan Boyle, 37, will easily triumph over Republican Dee Adcock to become the 13th District Congressman, bringing that seat’s represenatitive back to Philadelphia. The heavily Democratic 13th District straddles Northeast Philadelphia and Montgomery County.
It was hard work on the part of Boyle, who was behind in early polling. His remedy, he said, was going “systematically, literally door-to-door. I held over 225 campaign events personally, and by the time we had polled again, the first week of March, we had pulled within one point of Margolies”, then the front runner.
But now that he is the nominee, Boyle understands he still has a rough row to hoe. So let’s not jinx him, just go out and support him.
It’s not cemented solidly, but all reports indicate Sept. 22nd in Hershey is shaping up as the first debate between Gov. Tom Corbett and Democratic challenger Tom Wolf at the PA Chamber of Business and Industry dinner.
The campaigns refused to either confirm or deny the report but the last three gubernatorial campaigns have held their opening debates at the organization’s dinner.The dinner, which features former NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Brokaw as the keynote speaker, will cost $275 if you’d like to attend ($250 for members).
Cheyney University was among five state universities to warn its faculty union leaders last month of possible layoffs following the conclusion of the 2014-15 academic school year.
The contract with the Association of Pennsylvania State College and University Faculties requires universities to notify the union by Aug. 1 regarding the possible retrenchment of positions following the upcoming spring semester. A decision to eliminate positions could be made as early as October.
“We are obligated to notify the union if there is the smallest chance that even one faculty position could be eliminated next year,” Cheyney spokeswoman Gwen Owens said in a statement. “While retrenchment was on the table last year for the same reason, no Cheyney University faculty member was retrenched.”
The Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education enrolls about 120,000 students across 14 state universities in more than 120 fields of study. Last year, only 14 of PASSHE’s 4,200 regular faculty members were retrenched.
Clarion, East Stroudsburg, Edinboro and Mansfield also notified the union of possible layoffs.
Cheney’s recent history indicates its legislatively elected fans need to do more than rescue it with grants. What they need is a hands on overlook and we suggest Rep. Jim Roebuck for that job.