Pols On The Street: Will Polling, TV Ads Beat Ground Game In Philadelphia Primary Races?

by Joe Shaheeli

Old friend John Zogby, a master conductor of international and national polls, reporting on races and trends, informed us the British Polling Council has convened an all-out investigation on how and why the polls failed so miserably to predict the actual outcome of their 2015 election.

He reminds us, “Election polling has always been an exercise in taking snapshots of a moment in time and opening a window so the public could get an idea of where the candidates stand at that moment in time. Tracking polls are equally useful because – within the limits of probability and other sources of error – they offer an opportunity for professionals, academics, candidates, donors, and the general public – to see how campaigns are progressing or failing.”

This Mayor’s race has thrown up enough smoke and fire, emails, door circulars, and television spots, loaded us up with whispered advice from political insiders from various candidates to make it look like we can pick a winner.

DA Seth Williams shares moment with Councilwoman Jannie Blackwell and mayoral candidate Anthony Williams at Prayer Breakfast; Sen. Williams also prayed.

DISTRICT ATTORNEY Seth Williams welcomes to 2nd Chance Foundation’s 4th annual Prayer Breakfast judicial candidate Rainy Papademetriou, and mayoral candidate Jim Kenney who said a prayer.

Checking our own sources, beginning at the ward level, we learn all the mayoral campaigns have thrown all their eggs at television. They don’t understand what it takes to bring a strong electoral turnout. Registrations are low as are requests for absentee ballots, foretelling us to expect a low turnout ranging from 20 to 35% of the electorate. Councilman David Oh, to his credit, launched a 2^nd annual Asian American Voter Registration Drive last Saturday which should help him in the general election.

We are disappointed to see the absence of old-fashioned grassroots skirmishes taking place in the contested 2nd and 7^th Councilmanic Dists. No committee people or candidate’s supporters have reported battling over registrations and absentee-ballot applications.

Heavy money has come into the campaigns of Jim Kenney, State Sen. Tony Williams and Lynne Abraham. All have topped the million-dollar mark, and enough of it came in time to allow the smartest campaigners to get into the trenches and get their candidate the mayoral position on the ballots passed around election day.

ONLY GRIM expression on dais at annual Living Flame Memorial Salute to police and firefighters who lost their lives on duty seems to belong to Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey. We wonder if he’s pondering what route to take should State Sen. Tony Williams win Tuesday’s mayoral election. Photo by Thomas Gregory

It’s obvious some of the African American ward leaders in the Democratic Party will be passing out ballots with Jim Kenney’s name in the Mayor’s position. This indicates a failure in Williams’ campaign team to reach out on more than one occasion for personal sit-downs with those leaders. Jim Kenney, by just being Kenney, hasn’t had to do much beyond say thanks to those coming over to his side, knowing his years in City Council have kept him in touch with many of them throughout the city, especially those who made good use of his office.

Ken Trujillo, who had been an early candidate for Mayor and withdrew after finances appeared not to be going his way, has endorsed Kenney. His campaign strategists have already crossed over to the Kenney campaign. He said, “I became a candidate for Mayor because Philadelphia is at an inflection point in its history. We have a painfully high 26% poverty rate and over 500,000 adult Philadelphians are functionally illiterate. At the same time, we are witnessing revitalization and growth many thought impossible. We are at a moment where so much progress is possible, but only if our next Mayor has visionary ideas and the ability to get things done. Jim Kenney is the best choice for Mayor.”

Kenney’s campaign has put together a coalition of smart campaign operators, welcoming aboard those lined up by Trujillo, who this week endorsed Kenney. Their press efforts have eclipsed in news releases and event announcements the combined efforts of all the other mayoral candidates.

Kenney has picked up the overwhelming support of the activist groups in this city’s gay community.

Williams has made firing Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey a wakeup call for the African American community. In those wards where shootings continue unabated, drug dealing remains a problem; it is not only “stop and frisk” that Williams wants to end. Ramsey has a lot of people who like him and that mitigates the mileage Williams has gained from his announcement.
He is asking voters to vote on his belief “The new Commissioner must understand that community policing is a mind set and not a policy…. That police are safer when they work in concert with community. My vision of One Philadelphia is about bringing people together, and the current practices of the department continue the divide in too many communities.”

COVETED endorsement of Phila.’s man for all seasons Ed Rendell was picked up by City Commission candidate and Ward Leader Carol Jenkins. From left are State Rep. Jim Roebuck, Asian civic activist Andy Toy, Rendell, Jenkins and her predecessor as 27th Ward Leader Mary Goldman.

Williams charged, “Before he ran for Mayor, Kenney was ‘annoyed’ by the limitations being placed on the Police Dept.’s use of force, angry that officers couldn’t use batons to the head. Kenney said he didn’t think stop-and-frisk was hurting anybody’s civil liberties. And during this campaign he had to be prodded into adopting the President’s report on community policing, and still has hesitations and qualifications around a zero-tolerance policy on hate speech by police officers.”

Williams also has the endorsement of the major African American clergy groups in this city, good when adding pluses and minuses, but whose success in getting parishioners to follow their political guidance has been hard to gauge.

Jim Kenney released two polls, showing him leading by one and then two points.  Since then, neither he nor Williams has announced the results of their continual “inside” polling, meaning, “If we are leading, let’s announce it and if we aren’t, say we are not polling.”

On paper, Jim Kenney looks as if this is his race to lose.

The official position of the Philadelphia Democratic Party is no mayoral candidates have an endorsement. Ward leaders are free to go where they want to in this election.

So, what stops Kenney from feeling confident?

With less than a week to go, facing us is the forever-unanswered question, “Will the African American political leadership be able to deliver to Jim Kenney 25% of the votes from that community on Election Day?”, which is the percentage targeted for victory by his strategists.

The next insoluble question, to be answered only on election day, is whether or not the mayoral campaigns of Lynne Abraham and Doug Oliver, both growing in strength, have taken votes presumably destined for Kenney or Williams in sufficient quantities to be considered spoilers, or surprise many by pulling votes to themselves in enough numbers to make our next Democratic mayoral nominee a candidate who won with a plurality?

Ed Rendell’s Nod A Plus

POPULAR former Gov. & Mayor Ed Rendell made it official! He’s also for Lisa Deeley for City Commissioner.

We are among a huge class of fans happy to see our former Mayor/Governor Ed Rendell continues to wield some power as we can see from those who are lucky enough to have received his endorsement in this election. We believe it still packs a punch among some committee people and definitely among many voters.

We’d like to see him become a mentor for the next Mayor, whether invited to do so or not.

Allan Domb Commits To Animal Mission

Allan Domb, a leading entrepreneur and candidate for City Council at Large, has added to his campaign message the need to join him in supporting Philadelphia’s Saved Me animal adoption center.

He said, “Today I’ve committed to donating to Saved Me because I’m a proud pet-owner and I know that many pets throughout the city are looking for forever homes. Zoe, my Jack Russell terrier, is truly man’s best friend. Organizations like the Saved Me adoption center, which helps make those valuable connections, contribute greatly not just to the quality of life in Philadelphia, but to the peace of mind of pet owners and pet lovers across the city and throughout the region. My vision for Philadelphia is one in which everyone is able to give back through organizations like Saved Me, and I’m excited to support the work of this and similar groups.”

Saved Me Inc. is a nonprofit organization focused on saving dogs and cats from shelters that are forced to euthanize due to limited space. Saved Me provides quality medical care, shelter, food, and a safe and healthy environment for its rescues. He asks all to look at website at www.savedme.org to donate, volunteer, and adopt.

GLOBAL Gala celebrated Korea’s rich cultural heritage and great contributions to Delaware Valley at International House in University City. First Asian American elected official in Phila., Councilman David Oh posed with models in striking Korean costumes.

Anti-Domb lobbyists have helped his campaign. He has gained the attention of PA Working Families, who protested outside of his fundraiser at Frankford Hall in Fishtown. Instead of causing him grief, that demo simply made more people aware of his campaign.

They are moaning he was only willing to donate his council salary to the district. They say they want him to stop taking advantage of the abatement program, in which they say, he’s saved millions. It is obvious they don’t understand what makes this economy tick or why the abatement program has been an incentive to apartment and condo construction in this city.

Singer Suspends Her Commission Campaign

Commissioner Stephanie Singer announced she has “suspended my campaign for City Commissioner,” asking her voters not to waste a vote for her on a Democratic write-in. She does come out with a list of endorsements. Check it out on http://www.vote-singer.com/.

If “suspend” means she gave up on the primary, but may come back as an independent, under her own party label or any other, she will not be happy with the results.

New PACs Need A Learning Curve

Philadelphia 3.0, a new political entity, powered by businessman and pushing for term limits in Council under the media presence of Neil Oxman, has been playing it safe, promoting Derek Green, Tom Wyatt and Isaiah Thomas. To his credit, Oxman must have someone checking our issues, since we have given these three good coverage during this campaign season.

We understand Neil was asked by 3.0 supporters to get their messages to our readership, which includes every committee person worth his or her salt, who will be taking to the polls impressions from what they have read over the year about many of the candidates on Tuesday’s ballot – especially those who have reached out to you committee people with their ads.

Dougherty, Lazarus, Wecht Get SEIU PA State Council

LABORERS Local 57 Business Mgr. Walt Higgins and Treasurer Mike Carfagno present endorsement check to at-large candidate Marnie Aument Loughrey.

The Pennsylvania State Council of the Service Employees International Union has endorsed Judges Kevin Dougherty, Anne Lazarus and David Wecht in the race for Pennsylvania Supreme Court. We wonder what took so long.

Especially since Gabe Morgan, president of the SEIU Pennsylvania State Council and Pennsylvania director of SEIU 32BJ, told his members, “We have no doubt Judges Dougherty, Lazarus and Wecht will add wisdom, integrity, and a passion for equal justice to the Commonwealth’s highest court.”

“For too long, the Supreme Court has been plagued by corruption, scandal, and has allowed for gerrymandered districts that disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvania voters. It’s time to restore order and balance to the court,” said Neal Bisno, secretary-treasurer of the State Council and president of SEIU Healthcare Pennsylvania.

Clinton Has Lock On Iowa Caucus

It seems the cement is drying hard on the pedestal for the Democratic search for a presidential candidate. The pedestal is already shaped for a woman and fashioned to make her look statuesque, maybe like a Greek goddess who can do no wrong.

There is little serious discontent among Democrats that might prompt a major challenge to Hillary Clinton for that space, which was reserved a long, long time ago.

With 60% of the vote among Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has an early lock on the first-in-the-nation presidential test, apparently undamaged by a nationwide flood of negative publicity, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll. A similar poll taken at end of February showed her slipping by one point. Forget the runners-up.

US Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 15% among Democrats, with 11% for VP Joseph Biden and 3% each for former US Sen. James Webb of Virginia and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Another 7% are undecided.

United Republicans Wards took a poll at their spring outing last week and attendees were polled as to which Republican they would like to see become their presidential candidate.

Here are the results garnered at the Quaker City Yacht Club and collated by Bill Pettigrew and his wife.  Chris Christie 33.33%; Rand Paul 14.29%; Mike Huckabee 9.52%; Scott Walker 9.52%; Marc Rubio, 9.52%; Jeb Bush, 9.52; Donald Trump, 4.76%, and Anybody But Hillary 95. 2%.

DELIGHTFUL breakfast with ward leaders was chaired by 4th Ward Leader Sonny Campbell, 2nd from right bottom row. Joining in merriment are, in top row, Ward Leaders Donna Reed Miller, 59th; Arthur Green, 14th; Sheriff Jewell Williams, 16th; Councilman at Large Ed Neilson; Councilwoman Jannie Blackwell, 46th; City Commissioner Anthony Clark, 28th; Supreme Court candidate Hon. Kevin Dougherty; Bernadette Wyche, 24th; and State Rep. Angel Cruz, 7th. Bottom row: Ward Leaders Shirley Gregory, 49th; Harold James, 36th; and Campbell with Tracy Roman, Common Pleas judge candidate. Photo by Joe Stivala

Wilfredo Rojas Petition Asks For Papal Meeting

WARD LEADERS Bob Dellavella and Councilman Bobbie Henon flank Judge Kevin Dougherty and N.E. Democratic Ward Leaders will be pushing for his Supreme Court nomination Election Day. Photo by Harry Leech

Wilfredo Rojas, one of Philadelphia’s long-time Latino political and community advocate, is circulating via internet a petition to support the request of the families of murder victims to have an audience with His Holiness Pope Francis during his upcoming visit to Philadelphia. The petition is being circulated by the Wilfredo Rojas, Aleida García and the JusticeforALEXnow.com committee.

Since Pope Francis often meets with bereaved families of murder victims, the petition mentions Wilfredo’s son Alejandro Rojas García was murdered on Jan. 24, 2015 and “has catapulted us in to the most difficult experience in our family’s history. As we connect with other families, which are going through this tragedy, we have been moved to request an audience with His Holiness to allow us the grace of his presence through an audience of prayer during his upcoming visit to Philadelphia. We are praying that this audience be granted for families that are suffering devastation.”

Firefighters Union Decide For Kenney

SHERIFF Jewell Williams and Most Worship Grand Master Joseph B. Jefferson, #52, welcome mayoral candidates Tony Williams, Nelson Díaz and Lynne Abraham to Grand Lodge candidates’ meeting.

The Philadelphia Fire Officers Union last Friday announced its endorsement of Democrat Jim Kenney for Mayor of Philadelphia.  The membership of the PFOU, founded in 1953, includes all ranks above that of Firefighter or Paramedic (Lieutenant, Captain, Battalion Chief, Deputy Chief). Currently, the union has approximately 300 members.

Kenney’s late father, Jim, was a member and former Recording Secretary of PFOU in the 1970s.

“I am grateful and humbled by the endorsement of the PFOU,” added Kenney. “The Fire Dept. is in my lifeblood. During my 23 years on City Council, I fought for fair wages, quality equipment and safe working conditions for our firefighters and all first responders.”

Kenyatta Unveils String Of Rec, Park Makeovers

2^nd Dist. Councilman Kenyatta Johnson must have sensed he’d face strong opposition his second time around. He’s had in his Council District budget money in the works to upgrade rec centers and parks in need of refurbishing. This has given him an edge over his opponent Ori Feibush, allowing him to take part in ceremonies crediting him before voters at several sites in his district. Good campaigning.

Dem State Committee To Meet In Allentown

DUETING (at least politically) at her traditional Jazz Brunch were Councilwoman Marian Tasco and former colleague, now running for Mayor Jim Kenney. Photo by Leona Dixon

The Pennsylvania Democratic Party will host its first-ever State Committee meeting in Allentown, Pa. this Jun. 5-6 at the Renaissance Allentown Hotel. According to Exec. Dir. Diane Bowman, the Democratic Party is holding its meeting  in Allentown, Pa. in recognition of the growing influence the Latino community has in Pennsylvania politics; Allentown is symbolic of that influence as 42.8% of Allentown’s population is Latino, and one in five residents of Lehigh County are now Latino.

The growth of the Latino population will soon be formally reflected in the structure of the Pennsylvania Democrats. The meeting in Allentown coincides with the party’s unveiling of the new Latino Caucus, a group led by Isaac Torres-Figueroa and tasked with growing Latino participation within the party. “The Latino Caucus is just one of many steps we have taken to make sure the Latino community has a formal voice within our Party,” said Bowman.

To celebrate the new caucus, the party will have a “Noche Latina” fundraiser that everyone is invited to attend the evening of Jun 5. There will be live entertainment and an expansive menu. Tickets are $100 per person. For more information, please visit padems.com or contact celeste@padems.com.

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